State the data grain, assumptions, metric, leakage or failure risk, and how you would validate the result before discussing tools.
Question set
12 detailed answers
01What is Brownian motion (a Wiener process)? List its defining properties.
concept
Short answer: A Wiener process (standard Brownian motion) W_t is a stochastic process with four defining properties: W₀ = 0; independent increments; W_t − W_s ~ N(0, t − s) for s < t; continuous sample paths almost surely. It is the basic source of randomness in continuous-time finance.
In depth:
- W₀ = 0 — normalization of the starting point.
- Independent increments — increments over disjoint intervals are independent: the past does not help predict the future (hence the Markov property).
- Gaussian increments — W_t − W_s ~ N(0, t − s): variance grows linearly in time, so the typical range scales like √t.
- Continuous paths — almost surely no jumps, yet the paths are maximally rough.
Bonus properties interviewers fish for:
• nowhere differentiable: |ΔW| ~ √Δt ≫ Δt as Δt → 0
• quadratic variation: Σ(ΔW)² → t ⇒ (dW)² = dt
(the seed from which Itô's lemma grows)
• self-similarity: W_ct ~ √c·W_t; W_t = √t·Z with Z ~ N(0,1)
⚠️ Common mistake: offering "W_t ~ N(0, t)" as the definition. That is only a consequence: without independent increments and continuous paths, a process with those marginal distributions is not a Wiener process.
02What is E[W_s·W_t] for a Wiener process, and how do you derive it?
junior
Short answer: E[W_s·W_t] = min(s, t). This is the covariance function of Brownian motion: for s < t it equals s — the length of the "shared history" of the two time points.
In depth:
- The trick — assume s < t and decompose W_t = W_s + (W_t − W_s) to get independent pieces.
- The computation — the cross term vanishes by independence of increments, leaving E[W_s²] = Var(W_s) = s.
- The meaning — only the common interval [0, s] creates correlation; after time s the paths diverge independently, so the extra piece contributes nothing.
s < t: W_t = W_s + (W_t − W_s)
E[W_s·W_t] = E[W_s·(W_s + (W_t − W_s))]
= E[W_s²] + E[W_s·(W_t − W_s)]
= s + E[W_s]·E[W_t − W_s] ← independent increments
= s + 0·0
= s = min(s, t)
⚠️ Common mistake: writing s·t "by analogy with the variance" or silently dropping the cross term. The interviewer is listening for the justification: W_s and the increment W_t − W_s are independent, so the expectation of the product factorizes.
03What is a martingale? Is W_t² a martingale? What about W_t² − t?
concept
Short answer: A martingale is a process whose best forecast of the future value is the current one: E[X_t | F_s] = X_s for s < t (a "fair game", zero drift). W_t² is not a martingale — its mean E[W_t²] = t grows. The compensated process W_t² − t is a martingale.
In depth:
- Definition — three conditions: adapted to the filtration F_t, E|X_t| < ∞, and E[X_t | F_s] = X_s.
- W_t² — no — the direct computation (below) gives E[W_t² | F_s] = W_s² + (t − s) > W_s²: a submartingale drifting up at rate +1 per unit time.
- W_t² − t — yes — subtracting the compensator t removes the drift; a special case of the Doob–Meyer decomposition.
- Non-example — GBM with drift μ ≠ 0 is not a martingale; the discounted price becomes one under the risk-neutral measure.
E[W_t² | F_s] = E[(W_s + (W_t − W_s))² | F_s]
= W_s² + 2W_s·E[W_t − W_s | F_s] + E[(W_t − W_s)²]
= W_s² + 0 + (t − s) → not a martingale
E[W_t² − t | F_s] = W_s² + (t − s) − t = W_s² − s → martingale
⚠️ Common mistake: checking only that E[X_t] is constant. That is not enough — the equality must hold conditionally on the whole history F_s, not merely on average across paths.
04I double my bet after every loss on a fair coin — isn't that a guaranteed profit? What's the catch?
concept
Short answer: On paper the martingale betting strategy wins 1 almost surely: the first win covers all prior losses. The catch is the optional stopping theorem: the equality E[X_τ] = X₀ for a fair game requires a bounded stopping time or bounded wealth. With a finite bankroll or a table limit, E[profit] = 0: the rare catastrophic loss exactly offsets the frequent small wins.
In depth:
- The strategy — bets of 1, 2, 4, …, 2^{n−1}; the first win nets +1 on top of all accumulated losses.
- Why it "works" — P(an infinite losing streak) = 0, so the +1 arrives "almost surely". But that needs unbounded capital and unbounded time.
- OST — the gambler's wealth is a martingale; concluding E[X_τ] = X₀ is legitimate when τ is bounded, or the process is bounded, or uniform integrability holds. Here wealth before the first win is unbounded below — the conditions fail.
- With an n-round limit — with probability 1 − 2^{−n} you win +1, with probability 2^{−n} you lose 2^n − 1. Total: (1 − 2^{−n})·1 − 2^{−n}·(2^n − 1) = 0.
| Round n | Bet | Lost so far | P(reaching it) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1/4 |
| n | 2^{n−1} | 2^{n−1} − 1 | 2^{−(n−1)} |
⚠️ Common mistake: looking for the catch in the coin being "unfair". The coin is fair — what breaks is the applicability of optional stopping when intermediate losses are unbounded.
05Gambler's ruin: start at i, absorb at 0 or N. What is the probability of reaching N for a fair and for a biased coin?
middle
Short answer: For a fair coin, P(reach N before 0) = i/N. For a biased coin (p is the up-step, q = 1 − p, p ≠ q): P = (1 − (q/p)^i) / (1 − (q/p)^N).
In depth:
- Fair case — via a martingale — the wealth X_t is a martingale; optional stopping gives E[X_τ] = X₀ = i, while X_τ takes only the values 0 and N.
- Biased case — X_t itself is no longer a martingale, but M_t = (q/p)^{X_t} is (one-step check: p·(q/p) + q·(p/q) = 1). The same stopping argument yields the formula.
- Sanity check — as p → 1/2 the ratio q/p → 1, and by expansion the biased formula tends to i/N.
Fair: i = E[X_τ] = N·P + 0·(1 − P) ⇒ P = i/N
Biased: E[(q/p)^{X_τ}] = (q/p)^i
(q/p)^N·P + (q/p)^0·(1 − P) = (q/p)^i
⇒ P = (1 − (q/p)^i) / (1 − (q/p)^N)
⚠️ Common mistake: quoting i/N for the biased coin. Even a small edge changes the answer radically for large N: the odds against the disadvantaged player decay exponentially in the distance, not linearly.
06Brownian motion starts at 0. What is the probability of hitting +a before −b, and what is the expected exit time from [−b, a]?
middle
Short answer: P(hit +a before −b) = b/(a + b) — the probability is inversely proportional to the distance to the barrier. The expected exit time is E[τ] = ab. Both results follow from optional stopping applied to the martingales W_t and W_t² − t.
In depth:
- Probability — W_t is a martingale and τ is the exit time of the interval; E[W_τ] = W₀ = 0, with W_τ ∈ {a, −b}.
- Time — W_t² − t is a martingale, so E[W_τ²] = E[τ]; the value W_τ² equals a² or b² with the probabilities just found.
- Sanity check — for a symmetric interval a = b: p = 1/2 and E[τ] = a²; double the corridor width and you wait four times as long.
Probability: 0 = E[W_τ] = a·p + (−b)·(1 − p) ⇒ p = b/(a + b)
Time: E[W_τ²] = E[τ]
E[W_τ²] = a²·p + b²·(1 − p)
= a²b/(a + b) + ab²/(a + b) = ab(a + b)/(a + b) = ab
⇒ E[τ] = ab
⚠️ Common mistake: flipping it to p = a/(a + b). Check the limiting case: as a → 0 the +a barrier sits right at the start and p → 1 — so the numerator must be b, the distance to the opposite barrier.
07How does Itô's lemma differ from the ordinary chain rule, and where does the extra term come from?
concept
Short answer: For a smooth function f of an Itô process dX = μ dt + σ dW, Itô's lemma adds the term ½f″σ² dt to the ordinary chain rule. The reason is the non-vanishing quadratic variation of Brownian motion: (dW)² = dt, so the second-order Taylor term is of order dt and does not disappear.
In depth:
- Taylor to second order — df = f′ dX + ½f″(dX)²; in classical calculus (dX)² = O(dt²) and gets discarded.
- Brownian motion is different — the increment ΔW has size √Δt, hence the Itô multiplication table: (dW)² = dt, dW·dt = 0, (dt)² = 0.
- The canonical example — the log of GBM: a −σ²/2 correction to the log-return drift.
df = (∂f/∂t + μ·∂f/∂x + ½σ²·∂²f/∂x²) dt + σ·∂f/∂x dW
GBM: dS = μS dt + σS dW, f = ln S
f′ = 1/S, f″ = −1/S²
d ln S = (μ − σ²/2) dt + σ dW ← the Itô correction
⚠️ Common mistake: dropping the −σ²/2 and claiming the log-return drift equals μ. At σ = 30% the correction is −4.5% per year: average log growth is noticeably below μ, and the median path grows more slowly than the mean.
08State the Black–Scholes assumptions. Which one is most violated in practice?
concept
Short answer: The price follows GBM (lognormal distribution) with constant volatility; the rate r is constant; there are no frictions (fees, taxes, short-sale constraints) and no dividends; delta hedging is continuous; exercise is European. The most violated assumption is constant volatility — that is exactly why the volatility smile exists.
In depth:
- The key violation — constant σ — the market quotes implied volatility (the volatility smile): σ differs across strikes and maturities, which a single-constant model cannot explain.
- Fat tails and jumps — real returns are leptokurtic; lognormality underprices crashes → out-of-the-money puts trade richer than the model says, hence the skew.
- Discrete hedging — continuous rebalancing is impossible; gaps and transaction costs leave hedging error.
| Assumption | Reality |
|---|---|
| Constant σ | implied volatility smile/skew |
| GBM, lognormality | fat tails, jumps, volatility clustering |
| Constant r | stochastic rates (matters at long maturities) |
| No frictions or dividends | fees, spreads, dividends |
| Continuous delta hedge | discrete, gap risk |
| European exercise | American and exotic contracts |
⚠️ Common mistake: naming the constant rate as the main problem. At typical maturities it is second-order; the very existence of the volatility smile is direct empirical refutation of constant σ.
09Sketch the derivation of the Black–Scholes PDE via a hedging portfolio. What are the two key points in the derivation?
senior
Short answer: Form the portfolio Π = V − ΔS with Δ = ∂V/∂S: this choice kills the dW term, the portfolio becomes locally riskless, and by no-arbitrage a riskless portfolio must grow at the rate r. Equating the two gives the Black–Scholes PDE. The two key points: hedging kills the randomness, and μ drops out of the equation entirely.
In depth:
- Itô's lemma for V(S, t) — dV contains drift terms and a dW term via dS.
- Choosing Δ = ∂V/∂S — in dΠ = dV − Δ·dS the coefficient of dW vanishes: being short Δ shares exactly cancels the option's local randomness.
- No arbitrage — a deterministic return must equal the riskless one: dΠ = rΠ dt; otherwise you arbitrage against the money-market account.
- μ is gone — the stock's expected return never enters the equation: the price does not depend on risk preferences → the bridge to risk-neutral pricing.
dV = (∂V/∂t + μS·∂V/∂S + ½σ²S²·∂²V/∂S²) dt + σS·∂V/∂S dW
Π = V − Δ·S, Δ = ∂V/∂S:
dΠ = (∂V/∂t + ½σ²S²·∂²V/∂S²) dt ← dW and μ cancel
dΠ = rΠ dt = r(V − S·∂V/∂S) dt
⇒ ∂V/∂t + ½σ²S²·∂²V/∂S² + rS·∂V/∂S − rV = 0
⚠️ Common mistake: reciting the pricing formula instead of the logic. The interviewer is listening for two things: why hedging removes the randomness, and why μ vanishing means risk preferences are irrelevant so you may price in the risk-neutral world.
10State put-call parity. What enforces it, and does it depend on a model?
junior
Short answer: For European options on a non-dividend-paying stock: C − P = S − K·e^{−rT}. The relation is model-free — no assumptions about the price distribution; it is enforced by conversion/reversal arbitrage, because a call minus a put is a synthetic forward.
In depth:
- Replication — the portfolios "call + K·e^{−rT} in bonds" and "put + stock" are both worth max(S_T, K) at time T, so they must also agree in price today.
- Arbitrage if violated — buy the cheap side, sell the rich one: long call + short put against the forward locks in a riskless profit.
- Consequences — a call and a put at the same strike carry the same implied volatility; knowing one premium recovers the other with no model at all.
Portfolio A: C + K·e^{−rT} Portfolio B: P + S
At T: A = max(S_T − K, 0) + K = max(S_T, K)
B = max(K − S_T, 0) + S_T = max(S_T, K)
A = B at T ⇒ A = B today:
C + K·e^{−rT} = P + S ⇔ C − P = S − K·e^{−rT}
⚠️ Common mistake: saying parity "follows from Black–Scholes". It is the other way around — this is pure no-arbitrage with no model; all you need is European exercise and a dividend adjustment (with dividends, S becomes S − PV(div)).
11Greeks of a long call: signs, and where is each one largest? How are gamma and theta related?
middle
Short answer: Delta = N(d₁) ∈ (0, 1), slightly above 0.5 for an ATM call; gamma and vega are positive, theta is negative — a long option pays time decay. The link: from the Black–Scholes PDE, Θ + ½σ²S²Γ ≈ r(V − SΔ) — long gamma is financed with theta.
In depth:
- Delta — N(d₁); slightly above 0.5 ATM because of the +σ√T/2 term in d₁; tends to 1 deep in the money and 0 out of the money.
- Gamma — largest ATM and sharpens toward expiry: delta flips 0 → 1 ever more abruptly.
- Vega — largest ATM and grows with time to expiry.
- Theta — negative, most painful ATM near expiry — the mirror image of gamma.
- The gamma-theta tradeoff — re-hedging a long-gamma book "buys low, sells high" and earns realized volatility, but on average that income is exactly paid for by theta.
| Greek | Sign (long call) | Where largest |
|---|---|---|
| Delta | + (0…1) | → 1 deep ITM |
| Gamma | + | ATM, near expiry |
| Vega | + | ATM, long maturities |
| Theta | − | ATM, near expiry |
⚠️ Common mistake: "ATM delta is exactly 0.5". It is slightly above — d₁ carries a +σ√T/2 term. And remember: gamma and theta almost always have opposite signs — there is no free gamma.
12What is the risk-neutral measure? Can Q-probabilities be read as real-world forecasts?
concept
Short answer: The risk-neutral measure Q is the probability measure under which discounted asset prices are martingales: every asset drifts at the riskless rate r. A derivative's price = e^{−rT}·E_Q[payoff], and the existence of Q is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage (the first fundamental theorem). No: Q-probabilities are not a forecast — they are real-world probabilities reweighted by the price of risk.
In depth:
- Where it comes from — the Black–Scholes derivation showed μ drops out: since the price is independent of risk preferences, you may compute in the convenient world where everything grows at r.
- The reweighting — Q overweights bad states (where the marginal utility of money is higher) and underweights good ones; technically a Radon–Nikodym derivative, and by Girsanov's theorem only the drift changes: μ → r.
- Example — N(d₂) in the Black–Scholes formula is the Q-probability the call is exercised; when μ > r it sits below the real-world one.
| P (real-world measure) | Q (risk-neutral) | |
|---|---|---|
| Stock drift | μ | r |
| Used for | forecasting, risk management | pricing, hedging |
| Meaning of probabilities | frequencies of the future | normalized state prices (Arrow–Debreu) |
⚠️ Common mistake: reading N(d₂) as "the real chance the option finishes in the money". It is a probability under Q; mistaking risk-neutral probabilities for a forecast is the classic trap.
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